About Volatile
We don't build simple models. We push the state of the art in power market modeling. Our models are built right next to trading and execution, in constant exchange with the desks that use our forecasts.
Cologne, Germany
The Volatile pipeline
Fundamental models
Physics-based · Wind & solar generation, load
Market models
Built for power markets, continuously developed
Day-ahead · Intraday · Balancing
Why we exist
Renewables have changed how power markets behave. Prices are more volatile than ever: negative prices, steep ramps and sudden spikes are part of every trading week. Batteries and flexible assets now compete across day-ahead, intraday and balancing, and many decisions have to be made within minutes.
For trading desks, volatility creates opportunity. Capturing it requires models and solutions that actually support their hardest decisions. That is why we started Volatile.
The decisions we help with
How we work
01 · Our core
Weather, outages, cross-border coupling and the behavior of market participants feed our own fundamental and market models, in one pipeline that we keep pushing forward. Our fundamental models are physics-based: they stack analytical modeling with machine learning.
By integrating everything into one pipeline, our solutions leverage the full picture of the system. This drives accuracy and provides the foundation for decision support on the trading desk.
A pipeline built for power markets
Every input chosen for how it moves prices, from weather to bidding behavior.
At the frontier of market modeling
We develop our models continuously and ship improvements in regular releases.
Close to trading and execution
We build in close exchange with the desks that trade on our forecasts.
02
Every forecast includes quantiles that reflect market uncertainties, so you can weigh risk instead of guessing it.
03
We show what drives each price, so you can spot system changes early and adjust your strategy before others react.
04
We test our models the way you will use them. Our backtests reflect what you can expect live.
05
Reliable infrastructure for 24/7 trading, delivered via API, SDK and our platform.
One trading day
Modeling the market means modeling how its parts connect. Capacity you commit to balancing in the morning is volume you cannot sell day-ahead. The day-ahead result sets your starting position for intraday, and your intraday strategy depends on every forecast update that follows.
Market
Balancing capacity
FCR · aFRR · mFRR · DE
Capacity prices across the bid ladder
Day-ahead auction
DE-LU · FR · BE · AT · NL
Price distributions per quarter hour
Intraday continuous
DE
Prices and order book depth, every minute
Balancing energy
aFRR · mFRR · DE
Energy prices, 3 h to 30 min before delivery
We model the trading day as one system.
Every forecast knows what the other markets expect, so your decisions across markets rest on one consistent view.
The team
Get to know the people behind Volatile and follow what we are working on.
Join the lab
Interested in joining? Write to us and tell us what you work on.